Lions battle Zags in WCC Tournament semifinals

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/07/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs are the top- seeded team in the West Coast Conference Tournament, and they begin play at the event with a semifinal-round matchup against the fifth-seeded Loyola Marymount Lions.

The winner of this tilt will battle either second-seeded Saint Mary's or third-seeded Portland on Monday for the title and automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Loyola Marymount has three WCC tourney titles to its credit, but the most recent came way back in 1990. The Lions have certainly worked hard to reach these semifinals, as they knocked off Pepperdine by three points on Friday before defeating San Francisco in an 84-76 final in Saturday's quarterfinals. LMU is now 18-14 overall and seemingly peaking at the perfect time.

Gonzaga has won the WCC Tournament 10 times, far more than any other team in the league. The Bulldogs have won five of the last six titles and defeated Saint Mary's by 25 points in the championship game a year ago. This year's team is 25-5 overall and has been idle since Tuesday's regular-season finale, a 19-point romp over CSU Bakersfield. That victory was the fourth in a row for the Zags.

The Lions actually beat the Bulldogs by a 74-66 final on February 18th to force a regular-season split. Overall, Gonzaga owns a 53-21 advantage in the series.

In the eight-point victory over San Francisco yesterday, Loyola Marymount shot 20-of-25 from the foul line, an obvious key to the outcome. There were four double-digit scorers in the tilt for the Lions, and they got 18 points from both Drew Vinney and Vernon Teel. Ashley Hamilton added 14 points, and Jarred DuBois contributed 11 points. LMU shot 49.2 percent from the floor and finished with a 12-4 edge in fast-break points. Through 32 games, the Lions are generating 76.2 ppg, marginally better than the 75.6 ppg they are surrendering. Vinney leads the team with 16.8 ppg on the strength of his 42.9 percent shooting from three-point range, and he is pulling down 7.0 rpg. Teel adds 15.2 ppg, and he has dished out 183 assists to go along with 59 steals. Both DuBois (12.5 ppg) and Kevin Young (10.6 ppg) add balance to the lineup.

Matt Bouldin leads a balanced Gonzaga attack into this semifinal showdown, as he is netting 16.0 ppg. Elias Harris provides 14.9 ppg and 7.4 rpg, while Steven Gray adds 13.5 ppg. The fourth and final double-digit scorer on the roster is big man Robert Sacre, who is netting 10.2 ppg to go along with nearly two blocks per outing. The Bulldogs are racking up 78.1 ppg on 49.5 percent shooting from the floor, and they are holding opponents to 66.7 ppg on 40.3 percent field goal efficiency. Gonzaga is outrebounding its foes by more than five boards per outing, key to the team's 25 wins. In the easy victory over CSU Bakersfield earlier in the week, Bouldin scored 15 points to lead the way for the Zags, who shot 51.7 percent from the floor and played outstanding defense.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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