ETSU wins Atlantic Sun for second straight year

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/06/2010 - Macon, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Tubbs led a balanced scoring attack with 18 points, and the East Tennessee State Buccaneers secured their second consecutive Atlantic Sun tournament championship with a 72-66 victory over Mercer.

Tommy Hubbard added 14 points and six rebounds for the Bucs (20-14), who will make their second straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament and ninth in school history. ETSU lost a hard-fought battle with top-seeded Pittsburgh last year, 72-62, in a first-round matchup.

Micah Williams contributed 13 points and nine boards, Isiah Brown had 12 points and Adam Sollazzo posted 11 points for East Tennessee State, which, as the fifth seed, beat fourth-seeded Campbell in the quarters before knocking off second-seeded Jacksonville in the semis.

The Bucs had lost both regular season games to Mercer this season.

E.J. Kusnyer led the Bears (16-17) with 16 points, but Mercer was unable to capture its first conference championship since 1985. Brandon Moore added 13 points in the loss.

A Daniel Emerson tip shot and Jeff Smith free throw helped the Bears tie the game, 60-60, with just over two minutes to go.

ETSU, though, went ahead for good on a pair of Williams free throws that were followed by a Tubbs three-pointer for a 65-61 advantage with under 1 1/2 minutes remaining.

Sollazzo padded the lead with two free throws for a six-point edge with a minute to play, although Kusnyer answered with a three for Mercer to make it a one-possession game.

Emerson brought the Bears to within 68-66 with 35 seconds left with a pair from the line, but Tubbs was able to hit both of his shots after a foul to restore a four-point lead. Mercer was unable to respond.

ETSU held an 11-point lead, 21-10, after a Jocolby Davis dunk midway through the first half, but Mercer battled back and faced only a two-point deficit at halftime, 37-35.

The Bears grabbed a 42-41 lead with 15 minutes left on a James Florence three, but the Bucs answered with the next seven points and held a slim lead down the stretch.

Game Notes

Mercer, the sixth seed, beat third-seeded Belmont in the quarterfinals and eighth-seeded Kennesaw State in the semifinals...ETSU had won the first eight games in this series before getting swept by the Bears in the regular season...The Bucs have won this tournament only twice -- 2009 and 2010...East Tennessee State is 2-9 all time in the NCAA Tournament, with its last win coming in 1992 over Arizona...Emerson and Florence each finished with nine points.

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Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch

Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.

Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.

"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs.

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.