Cardinals start series in Atlanta

Baseball Betting Lines

09/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When St. Louis and Atlanta last met in April, the Cardinals ran away with a four-game sweep at Busch Stadium. They will attempt to do that again in the first of four consecutive matchups tonight from Turner Field.

The Cardinals had lost three in a row to Atlanta before sweeping a four-game series from April 26-29, and are currently fighting for their playoff lives. St. Louis dropped the final two portions of a three-game series at Milwaukee and suffered an 8-1 setback in Wednesday's finale, as starter Jaime Garcia was roughed up for seven runs and seven hits in four innings.

Albert Pujols ended with a team-best two hits, including a home run in the first inning, for the Cardinals, losers in 11 of their last 15 games. The Cards are still six games behind Cincinnati for the National League Central lead and sit 6 1/2 games off the pace in the wild card race.

"It was kind of a weird night for us," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said. "We're getting shut down pretty regularly now."

La Russa's club is 1-2 on a seven-game road trip and has lost seven of its last eight contests as the visitor. Speaking of losses, Cardinals co-ace Adam Wainwright will try to stop a personal four-game losing streak when he takes the mound this evening. He had won three starts in a row before his recent slide and is coming off Saturday's 6-1 loss to the Reds in which he yielded five runs -- two earned -- and seven hits over five innings.

Wainwright fell to 17-10 in 29 starts to go along with a 2.34 ERA. The All- Star righty is also 6-8 in 15 starts away from Busch Stadium this season. He beat Atlanta during the four-game sweep on April 29, hurling six innings of three-run ball in a 10-4 victory. Wainwright is 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA in eight career matchups (5 starts) with the Braves.

Atlanta is hoping a return home will cure its recent woes, despite salvaging the finale of a three-game in Pittsburgh with Wednesday's 9-3 victory.

Derek Lowe has won all 10 of his career starts against the Pirates after he held the hosts to just a run on eight hits in six innings. Lowe also had a hit and two runs scored, while Martin Prado, Derrek Lee and Alex Gonzalez each drove in a pair of runs for the current wild card-leading Braves, who had lost three straight and five of six games before the six-run triumph.

"I felt good," Lowe said. "There was never any issue of any pain and the game pretty much came down to one pitch in the first inning. We got three runs and they came back and loaded the bases, and it came down to the pitch to Ryan Doumit and I was able to make it and then we just kept piling on."

The Braves' recent slump allowed Philadelphia to take back the top spot in the NL East, as the Phillies hold a half-game lead over Atlanta for division bragging rights. Atlanta is two games in front of San Francisco for the final postseason berth in the Senior Circuit.

Atlanta will also host Washington for three games in Dixie and is an impressive 49-19 at Turner Field this season. It will send Jair Jurrjens to the mound Thursday and he's 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his last seven starts. He threw seven shutout innings and gave up three hits in Saturday's 2-0 win at Florida, improving to 7-4 in 18 outings this season.

Jurrjens lost to the Cardinals in late April and is 1-3 with a 3.27 ERA in four career starts against them. The right-hander, however, will put his 6-0 home record on the line tonight.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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