Aztecs seek return to win column in MWC clash with Falcons

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02/18/2012 - USAFA, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having lost back-to-back games for the first time this season, the 13th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs try to work their way back into the win column this afternoon as they tangle with the Air Force Falcons in Mountain West Conference play at Clune Arena.

Up until late January, the Aztecs were humming along with just a pair of setbacks on the season, but since then the team has bowed in three of the last five and is now tied for second place in the MWC standings with UNLV at 6-3 because of it. On Wednesday night, the team was beaten at home by New Mexico in a 77-67 final, which means SDSU is now chasing the Lobos in the standings heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, the Falcons had a surprise of their own three nights ago when they finally picked up that first conference win of the season, a 58-53 triumph over Wyoming on the road no less. The victory snapped a seven-game slide by The Academy and was the first for interim head coach Dave Pilipovich who took over for Jeff Reynolds who was dismissed the week prior.

SDSU won the first meeting of the season last month by a score of 57-44 at home, which means the all-time series now numbers 47-20 in favor of the Aztecs.

The Aztecs had plenty of trouble hitting their marks from three-point range on Wednesday night, connecting on just 3-of-14 attempts out on the perimeter, which was enough to keep the team out of the win column once again. Jamaal Franklin tried to keep the group competitive with 16 points and 10 rebounds, but he would have been smart to remain in the paint where he was serving some good, rather than leaking out to beyond the arc where he missed all four of his shot attempts. Tim Shelton and James Rahon chipped in 13 and 11 points, respectively, in the setback as well. Jamaal Franklin has at least held a share of the scoring lead for the Aztecs in five of the last six outings and that has pushed him to 17.4 ppg in league play, although his mere 26.7 percent shooting behind the three-point line is nothing to be proud of. Chase Tapley (15.8 ppg) is the one who deserves more attention for his three-point prowess, hitting on 43.5 percent of his attempts on the season, but as a whole San Diego State is connecting on only 33.7 percent on the outside for the year and 30.5 percent in conference.

Michael Lyons erupted for 24 points as the Air Force Falcons captured the five-point road win over Wyoming at Arena Auditorium earlier this week. Lyons finished the night shooting 6-of-8 behind the three-point line for the Falcons. Also scoring in double figures for the visitors was Taylor Broekhuis with 12 points. Air Force, which held the Cowboys to a mere four field goals through the first 17 minutes of the second half, picked up the win even though it failed to record a single offensive rebound for the first time since posting an 80-75 win over Colorado State on the same date back in 2003. Lyons has now scored 24 points in each of the last two games and has led the team in scoring in four of the last five outings, en route to 15.4 ppg which paces the program overall. Mike Fitzgerald checks in with 11.1 ppg and Broekhuis 10.2 ppg in conference play, but still this is a group that is scoring just 55.6 ppg versus the rest of the MWC and a mere 61.9 ppg overall in 2011-12.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.

Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.

Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.

So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.

In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.

For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.

The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.

The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.

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